October 2025 general election: Difference between revisions

| candidate1 = [[Tsai Ing-wen]]

| colour1 = 1B9431

| party1 = [[Democratic Progressive Party]]

| image1 = File:蔡英文官方元首肖像照.png

| last_election1 = 22.06%, 62 seats

| seats1 = 10

| percentage1 = 36.71%

| candidate2 = [[Abu Mohammad al-Julani]]

| colour2 = 480D67

| party2 = [[Forward Party]]

| image2 = File:Ahmed al-Sharaa in July 2025 (cropped).jpg

| last_election2 = 30.47%, 82 seats

| seats2 = 5

| percentage2 = 19.13%

| candidate3 = [[Heidi Reichinnek]]

| colour3 = C21E56

| party3 = [[Orchid Party]]

| image3 = File:Official Portrait of Heidi Reichinnek.png

| last_election3 = 7.11%, 17 seats

| seats3 = 3

| percentage3 = 11.56%

| seats_before3 = 17

| candidate7 = [[Dominic Fritz]]

| colour7 = C3D746

| party7 = [[Momentum-Unity]]

| image7 = File:Dominic Fritz (May 2025).jpg

| last_election7 = 9.33%, 23 seats

| seats7 = 1

| seat_change7 =  

| percentage7 = 5.93%

| swing7 =  

| seats_before7 = 21

| candidate6 = [[Gavin Newsom]]

| colour6 = 768135

| party6 = [[Momentum-Free Republic]]

| image6 = File:Newsom April 2024 (3x4 cropped b).jpg

| last_election6 = 8.12%, 21 seats

| last_election5 = 4.54%, 9 seats

| seats5 = 1

| percentage5 = 7.18%

| seats_before5 = 9

| alliance5 = [[Democratic Coordination Front]]

| candidate8 = [[Hunter Biden]]

| colour8 = 56277E

| party8 = [[Relationist Party of the Radical Left]]

| image8 = File:Hunter Biden September 30, 2014.jpg

| last_election8 = 2.63%, 1 seat

| seats8 = 0

| percentage8 = 4.79%

| candidate9 = [[Nigel Farage]]

| colour9 = 12B6CF

| party9 = [[Reform Party]]

| image9 = File:Pogday.jpg

| last_election9 = 4.32%, 8 seats

| seats9 = 0

| percentage9 = 0.00%

| ongoing = no

| reporting = 8.00

| last_update = 23:07

| time_zone = EDT

}}The '''October 2025 general elections''' are scheduled to be held across [[the Republic]] on October 12, 2025. All 251 seats in the [[National Assembly]] will be up for election. In addition, a Constitutional referendum on the [[Galvin Amendment]], a proposal by [[William F. Galvin|President Galvin]] to expand direct democracy and ballot measures, will be held. If passed, the amendment will become a part of the [[Constitution]].<ref>This is probably true</ref>

|9% {{Increase}} 1%

|23 seats {{Increase}} 3

|36% {{Increase}} 2%

|90 seats {{Increase}} 5

|11% {{Steady}}

|27 seats {{Decrease}} 1

|21% {{Steady}}

|53 seats {{Steady}}

|8% {{Steady}}

|20 seats

|15% {{Decrease}} 3%

|38 seats {{Decrease}} 7

The cabinet began by attempting to stabilize [[the Republic]]'s institutions and restore trust in democracy by allowing the opposition free reign to campaign. The government attempted to reduce the powers of the [[Senate]] in minor ways. The opposition maintained that these moves were only superficial attempts to look democratic, and that FWD was still the authoritarian party it had been for the past months during the [[Husband Cabinet I|first]] and [[Husband Cabinet II|second]] Husband cabinets.  

The cabinet pivoted towards the center during the early days of the cabinet. Under [[Ministry of Labor|Labor Minister]] [[Andrew Yang]], the ministry resisted attempts by the KMT to expand the work program. This enraged the KMT, which demanded the coalition lurch to the right. On September 30, after a series of scandals in the Labor Constituency, Prime Minister Julani announced that he was sacking Andrew Yang. In a deal with Reform and the KMT, inactive reform member Rudy Juliani as the new Minister. This led to mass protests in the constituency, and was the zeitgeist for the coalition's popularity beginning to decline.

On October 4th, the [[DPP]] announced its manifesto, which called for, among other things, the abolition of the [[Senate]], curtailing the powers of the [[Constitutional Court]], ending "Future Records", and an unconditional amnesty for all those arrested in the July Coup. Around this time, the DPP passed FWD in opinion polling for the first time, and the Anti-Constitution Bloc passed the Pro-Constitution Bloc. FWD would not recover in the polls from that point on. On October 6th, the DPP, [[MO-FR]], [[Orchid Party|OP]], [[AfD]], and [[RPRL]] announced the re-formation of the [[Democratic Coordination Front]]. The inclusion of the AfD led to controversy, with FWD strongly criticizing the opposition for the inclusion of such a radical party. The DCF was essentially a pact, with all parties agreeing not to enter a coalition with FWD, to support the DPP's constitutional reforms, to support the unconditional amnesty, and to condemn authoritarianism. Two days later, the coalition recorded a nearly 20 point lead over the Constitutionalists. On October 8th, [[Joe Rogan]] announced on behalf of the [[KVGW]], which had been operating underground as a result of the ban on their political sector, announced that his party had made a deal with the DPP to endorse the party, and would be joining the DCF. This led to the DPP gaining further in polls as KVGW supporters who previously didn't plan to vote decided to support the DPP.  

In the final days of the campaign, it was announced that "local lists" would be allowed to be formed. This means that a joint list would be able to created in only one constituency, or only a limited number of constituencies, rather than nationwide. This carries a risk, however, since votes from a joint list aren't counted towards nationwide leveling seats for a party. This was expected to help the government, with Reform and MO-U both polling below the threshold nationwide. Julani went on a campaign blitz, especially in Education and Uptime, two right wing strongholds, where he campaigned on fears of the DPP's abolition of Future Records. He also made multiple threats to arrest Tsai and other opposition leaders for working with "terrorists". The Kuomintang campaign began openly criticizing FWD for what the KMT saw as a lack of commitment to conservatism. The final poll was released on October 11, with election day the day after. The final poll saw the DPP's numbers increase further and the lead of the DCF be maintained.<ref>Politics. US history. Current events.</ref>

Opinion polls were taken starting soon after the [[September 2025 general election|September elections]]. The only polling firm in [[the Republic]] is [[Anne Seltzer|Anne Seltzer's]] agency, which has done polling for every election since [[May 2025 Parliamentary election|May 2025]].

On October 11, 2025, Seltzer released the final poll of the campaign on the day before the election. The poll included the approval ratings of various politicians and polling about the constitutional referendum, along with the standard parliamentary polling.<ref>Truth Social</ref>

[[File:Opinion polling for the October 2025 parliamentary election by party.svg|center|thumb|800x800px|Graphical summary of opinion polling by individual party list in the leadup to the election]]