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October 2025 general election: Difference between revisions

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| election_date = October 12, 2025
| election_date = October 12, 2025
| seats_for_election = All 251 seats in the [[Republican National Assembly]]
| seats_for_election = All 251 seats in the [[Republican National Assembly]]
| candidate1 = [[Abu Mohammad al-Julani]]
| candidate1 = [[Tsai Ing-wen]]
| colour1 = 480D67
| colour1 = 1B9431
| party1 = [[Forward Party]]
| party1 = [[Democratic Progressive Party]]
| image1 = File:Ahmed al-Sharaa in July 2025 (cropped).jpg
| image1 = File:蔡英文官方元首肖像照.png
| last_election1 = 30.47%, 82 seats
| last_election1 = 22.06%, 62 seats
| seats1 =  
| seats1 = 10
| seat_change1 =  
| seat_change1 =  
| percentage1 =  
| percentage1 = 36.71%
| swing1 =  
| swing1 =  
| candidate2 = [[Tsai Ing-wen]]
| seats_before1 = 61
| colour2 = 1B9431
| alliance1 = [[Democratic Coordination Front]]
| party2 = [[Democratic Progressive Party]]
| candidate2 = [[Abu Mohammad al-Julani]]
| image2 = File:蔡英文官方元首肖像照.png
| colour2 = 480D67
| last_election2 = 22.06%, 62 seats
| party2 = [[Forward Party]]
| seats2 =  
| image2 = File:Ahmed al-Sharaa in July 2025 (cropped).jpg
| last_election2 = 30.47%, 82 seats
| seats_before2 = 82
| seats2 = 5
| seat_change2 =  
| seat_change2 =  
| percentage2 =  
| percentage2 = 19.13%
| swing2 =  
| swing2 =  
| candidate3 = [[Peter Dutton]]
| candidate3 = [[Heidi Reichinnek]]
| colour3 = 000099
| colour3 = C21E56
| party3 = [[Kuomintang]]
| party3 = [[Orchid Party]]
| image3 = File:Peter Dutton-2024.jpg
| image3 = File:Official Portrait of Heidi Reichinnek.png
| last_election3 = 11.42%, 28 seats
| last_election3 = 7.11%, 17 seats
| seats3 =  
| seats3 = 3
| seat_change3 =  
| seat_change3 =  
| percentage3 =  
| percentage3 = 11.56%
| swing3 =  
| swing3 =  
| candidate4 = [[Dominic Fritz]]
| seats_before3 = 17
| colour4 = C3D746
| alliance3 = [[Democratic Coordination Front]]
| party4 = [[Momentum-Unity]]
| candidate7 = [[Dominic Fritz]]
| image4 = File:Dominic Fritz (May 2025).jpg
| colour7 = C3D746
| last_election4 = 9.33%, 23 seats
| party7 = [[Momentum-Unity]]
| seats4 =  
| image7 = File:Dominic Fritz (May 2025).jpg
| seat_change4 =  
| last_election7 = 9.33%, 23 seats
| percentage4 =  
| seats7 = 1
| swing4 =  
| seat_change7 =  
| candidate5 = [[Gavin Newsom]]
| percentage7 = 5.93%
| colour5 = 768135
| swing7 =  
| party5 = [[Momentum-Free Republic]]
| seats_before7 = 21
| image5 = File:Newsom April 2024 (3x4 cropped b).jpg
| candidate6 = [[Gavin Newsom]]
| last_election5 = 8.12%, 21 seats
| colour6 = 768135
| seats5 =  
| party6 = [[Momentum-Free Republic]]
| image6 = File:Newsom April 2024 (3x4 cropped b).jpg
| last_election6 = 8.12%, 21 seats
| seats6 = 1
| seat_change6 =
| percentage6 = 6.35%
| swing6 =
| seats_before6 = 23
| alliance6 = [[Democratic Coordination Front]]
| candidate5 = [[Albert Speer]]
| colour5 = 964B00
| party5 = [[Alternative for Germany]]
| image5 = File:Bundesarchiv Bild 146II-277, Albert Speer.jpg
| last_election5 = 4.54%, 9 seats
| seats5 = 1
| seat_change5 =  
| seat_change5 =  
| percentage5 =  
| percentage5 = 7.18%
| swing5 =  
| swing5 =  
| candidate6 = [[Heidi Reichinnek]]
| seats_before5 = 9
| colour6 = C21E56
| alliance5 = [[Democratic Coordination Front]]
| party6 = [[Orchid Party]]
| candidate8 = [[Hunter Biden]]
| image6 = File:Official Portrait of Heidi Reichinnek.png
| colour8 = 56277E
| last_election6 = 7.11%, 17 seats
| party8 = [[Relationist Party of the Radical Left]]
| seats6 =
| image8 = File:Hunter Biden September 30, 2014.jpg
| seat_change6 =
| last_election8 = 2.63%, 1 seat
| percentage6 =
| seats8 = 0
| swing6 =
| candidate7 = [[Albert Speer]]
| colour7 = 964B00
| party7 = [[Alternative for Germany]]
| image7 = File:Bundesarchiv Bild 146II-277, Albert Speer.jpg
| last_election7 = 4.54%, 9 seats
| seats7 =
| seat_change7 =
| percentage7 =
| swing7 =
| candidate8 = [[Nigel Farage]]
| colour8 = 12B6CF
| party8 = [[Reform Party]]
| image8 = File:Pogday.jpg
| last_election8 = 4.32%, 8 seats
| seats8 =  
| seat_change8 =  
| seat_change8 =  
| percentage8 =  
| percentage8 = 4.79%
| swing8 =  
| swing8 =  
| candidate9 = [[Hunter Biden]]
| seats_before8 = 2
| colour9 = 56277E
| alliance8 = [[Democratic Coordination Front]]
| party9 = [[Relationist Party of the Radical Left]]
| candidate4 = [[Peter Dutton]]
| image9 = File:Hunter Biden September 30, 2014.jpg
| colour4 = 000099
| last_election9 = 2.63%, 1 seat
| party4 = [[Kuomintang]]
| seats9 =  
| image4 = File:Peter Dutton-2024.jpg
| last_election4 = 11.42%, 28 seats
| seats4 = 2
| seat_change4 =
| percentage4 = 0.00%
| swing4 =
| seats_before4 = 28
| candidate9 = [[Nigel Farage]]
| colour9 = 12B6CF
| party9 = [[Reform Party]]
| image9 = File:Pogday.jpg
| last_election9 = 4.32%, 8 seats
| seats9 = 0
| seat_change9 =  
| seat_change9 =  
| percentage9 =  
| percentage9 = 0.00%
| swing9 =  
| swing9 =  
| seats_before9 = 8
| title = [[Cabinet]] before the election
| title = [[Cabinet]] before the election
| before_election = [[Julani Cabinet]]
| before_election = [[Julani Cabinet]]
Line 95: Line 109:
| after_election = ''TBD''
| after_election = ''TBD''
| after_party = ''[[October 2025 general election|TBD]]''
| after_party = ''[[October 2025 general election|TBD]]''
| seats_before1 = 82
| ongoing = no
| seats_before2 = 61
| reporting = 8.00
| alliance2 = [[Democratic Coordination Front]]
| last_update = 23:07
| seats_before3 = 28
| time_zone = EDT
| seats_before4 = 21
| seats_before5 = 23
| seats_before6 = 17
| seats_before7 = 9
| seats_before8 = 8
| seats_before9 = 2
| alliance5 = [[Democratic Coordination Front]]
| alliance6 = [[Democratic Coordination Front]]
| alliance7 = [[Democratic Coordination Front]]
| alliance9 = [[Democratic Coordination Front]]
| ongoing = yes
}}The '''October 2025 general elections''' are scheduled to be held across [[the Republic]] on October 12, 2025. All 251 seats in the [[National Assembly]] will be up for election. In addition, a Constitutional referendum on the [[Galvin Amendment]], a proposal by [[William F. Galvin|President Galvin]] to expand direct democracy and ballot measures, will be held. If passed, the amendment will become a part of the [[Constitution]].<ref>This is probably true</ref>
}}The '''October 2025 general elections''' are scheduled to be held across [[the Republic]] on October 12, 2025. All 251 seats in the [[National Assembly]] will be up for election. In addition, a Constitutional referendum on the [[Galvin Amendment]], a proposal by [[William F. Galvin|President Galvin]] to expand direct democracy and ballot measures, will be held. If passed, the amendment will become a part of the [[Constitution]].<ref>This is probably true</ref>


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|Mandatory
|Mandatory
|9% {{Increase}} 1%
|9% {{Increase}} 1%
|23 seats
|23 seats {{Increase}} 3
|-
|-
|Education
|Education
|36% {{Increase}} 2%
|36% {{Increase}} 2%
|90 seats
|90 seats {{Increase}} 5
|-
|-
|Labor
|Labor
|11% {{Steady}}
|11% {{Steady}}
|27 seats
|27 seats {{Decrease}} 1
|-
|-
|Uptime
|Uptime
|21% {{Steady}}
|21% {{Steady}}
|53 seats
|53 seats {{Steady}}
|-
|-
|Downtime
|Downtime
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|Consumable
|Consumable
|15% {{Decrease}} 3%
|15% {{Decrease}} 3%
|38 seats
|38 seats {{Decrease}} 7
|}
|}


Line 150: Line 153:
The cabinet pivoted towards the center during the early days of the cabinet. Under [[Ministry of Labor|Labor Minister]] [[Andrew Yang]], the ministry resisted attempts by the KMT to expand the work program. This enraged the KMT, which demanded the coalition lurch to the right. On September 30, after a series of scandals in the Labor Constituency, Prime Minister Julani announced that he was sacking Andrew Yang. In a deal with Reform and the KMT, inactive reform member Rudy Juliani as the new Minister. This led to mass protests in the constituency, and was the zeitgeist for the coalition's popularity beginning to decline.
The cabinet pivoted towards the center during the early days of the cabinet. Under [[Ministry of Labor|Labor Minister]] [[Andrew Yang]], the ministry resisted attempts by the KMT to expand the work program. This enraged the KMT, which demanded the coalition lurch to the right. On September 30, after a series of scandals in the Labor Constituency, Prime Minister Julani announced that he was sacking Andrew Yang. In a deal with Reform and the KMT, inactive reform member Rudy Juliani as the new Minister. This led to mass protests in the constituency, and was the zeitgeist for the coalition's popularity beginning to decline.


Update...
On October 4th, the [[DPP]] announced its manifesto, which called for, among other things, the abolition of the [[Senate]], curtailing the powers of the [[Constitutional Court]], ending "Future Records", and an unconditional amnesty for all those arrested in the July Coup. Around this time, the DPP passed FWD in opinion polling for the first time, and the Anti-Constitution Bloc passed the Pro-Constitution Bloc. FWD would not recover in the polls from that point on. On October 6th, the DPP, [[MO-FR]], [[Orchid Party|OP]], [[AfD]], and [[RPRL]] announced the re-formation of the [[Democratic Coordination Front]]. The inclusion of the AfD led to controversy, with FWD strongly criticizing the opposition for the inclusion of such a radical party. The DCF was essentially a pact, with all parties agreeing not to enter a coalition with FWD, to support the DPP's constitutional reforms, to support the unconditional amnesty, and to condemn authoritarianism. Two days later, the coalition recorded a nearly 20 point lead over the Constitutionalists. On October 8th, [[Joe Rogan]] announced on behalf of the [[KVGW]], which had been operating underground as a result of the ban on their political sector, announced that his party had made a deal with the DPP to endorse the party, and would be joining the DCF. This led to the DPP gaining further in polls as KVGW supporters who previously didn't plan to vote decided to support the DPP.
 
In the final days of the campaign, it was announced that "local lists" would be allowed to be formed. This means that a joint list would be able to created in only one constituency, or only a limited number of constituencies, rather than nationwide. This carries a risk, however, since votes from a joint list aren't counted towards nationwide leveling seats for a party. This was expected to help the government, with Reform and MO-U both polling below the threshold nationwide. Julani went on a campaign blitz, especially in Education and Uptime, two right wing strongholds, where he campaigned on fears of the DPP's abolition of Future Records. He also made multiple threats to arrest Tsai and other opposition leaders for working with "terrorists". The Kuomintang campaign began openly criticizing FWD for what the KMT saw as a lack of commitment to conservatism. The final poll was released on October 11, with election day the day after. The final poll saw the DPP's numbers increase further and the lead of the DCF be maintained.<ref>Politics. US history. Current events.</ref>


=== Opinion polling ===
=== Opinion polling ===
Line 184: Line 189:


==== Polling by individual party list ====
==== Polling by individual party list ====
.[[File:Opinion polling for the October 2025 parliamentary election by party.svg|center|thumb|800x800px|Graphical summary of opinion polling by individual party list in the leadup to the election]]
[[File:Opinion polling for the October 2025 parliamentary election by party.svg|center|thumb|800x800px|Graphical summary of opinion polling by individual party list in the leadup to the election]]
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|rowspan="2"|Date
|rowspan="2"|Date
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! style="color:inherit;background:#12B6CF;"|
! style="color:inherit;background:#12B6CF;"|
! style="color:inherit;background:#964B00;"|
! style="color:inherit;background:#964B00;"|
|-
|10/11
|9
|5
| style="background:#1B9431; color:white;" |35
|5
|2
|20
|13
|3
|6
|-
|-
|10/8
|10/8
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! style="color:inherit;background:blue;"|
! style="color:inherit;background:blue;"|
! style="color:inherit;background:red;"|
! style="color:inherit;background:red;"|
|-
|10/11
|38
| style="background:red; color:white;" |60
|-
|-
|10/8
|10/8
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|
|
|}
|}
== Parliamentary results by constituency ==
=== Mandatory ===
{| class="wikitable"
! colspan="2" |[[List of political parties|Party]]
!Vote share
!Seats won
!Seats won (post-leveling)
|-
| style="background:#1B9431" |
|[[Democratic Progressive Party]]
|36.71% {{Increase}} 11.65%
|10 {{Increase}} 4
|
|-
| style="background:#480D67" |
|[[Forward Party]]
|19.13% {{Decrease}} 9.07%
|5 {{Decrease}} 2
|
|-
| style="background:#C21E56" |
|[[Orchid Party]]
|11.56% {{Increase}} 3.88%
|3 {{Increase}} 2
|
|-
| style="background:#000099" |
|[[United List]]{{Efn|Joint list of the [[Kuomintang]] and [[Reform]]}}
|8.35% {{Decrease}} 2.88%
|2{{Efn|Both seats were won by the [[Kuomintang]]}} {{Steady}}
|
|-
| style="background:#964B00" |
|[[Alternative for Germany]]
|7.18% {{Increase}} 1.43%
|1 {{Steady}}
|
|-
| style="background:#768135" |
|[[Momentum-Free Republic]]
|6.35% {{Decrease}} 1.68%
|1 {{Steady}}
|
|-
| style="background:#C3D746" |
|[[Momentum-Unity]]
|5.93% {{Decrease}} 5.05%
|1 {{Decrease}} 1
|
|-
| style="background:#56277E" |
|[[Relationist Party of the Radical Left]]
|4.79% {{Increase}} 1.72%
|0 {{Steady}}
|
|}
=== Education ===
{| class="wikitable"
! colspan="2" |[[List of political parties|Party]]
!Vote share
!Seats won
!Seats won (post-leveling)
|-
| style="background:#480D67" |
|[[Forward Party]]
|26.07% {{Decrease}} 10.05%
|25 {{Decrease}} 8
|
|-
| style="background:#1B9431" |
|[[Democratic Progressive Party]]
|24.65% {{Increase}} 10.78%
|24 {{Increase}} 11
|
|-
| style="background:#000099" |
|[[Kuomintang]]
|14.79% {{Increase}} 1.82%
|14 {{Increase}} 2
|
|-
| style="background:#C21E56" |
|[[Orchid Party]]
|6.92% {{Increase}} 2.92%
|6 {{Increase}} 6
|
|-
| style="background:#768135" |
|[[Momentum-Free Republic]]
|6.56% {{Decrease}} 0.01%
|6 {{Steady}}
|
|-
| style="background:#56277E" |
|[[Relationist Party of the Radical Left]]
|6.11% {{Increase}} 3.45%
|5 {{Increase}} 5
|
|-
| style="background:#964B00" |
|[[Alternative for Germany]]
|5.31% {{Decrease}} 0.81%
|5 {{Steady}}
|
|-
| style="background:#C3D746" |
|[[Momentum-Unity]]
|5.11% {{Decrease}} 7.05%
|5 {{Decrease}}  6
|
|-
| style="background:#12B6CF" |
|[[Reform Party]]
|4.48% {{Decrease}} 1.05%
|0 {{Decrease}} 5
|
|}
=== Labor ===
{| class="wikitable"
! colspan="2" |[[List of political parties|Party]]
!Vote share
!Seats won
!Seats won (post-leveling)
|-
| style="background:#1B9431" |
|[[Democratic Progressive Party]]
|40.07% {{Increase}} 12.11%
|13 {{Increase}} 4
|
|-
| style="background:#C21E56" |
|[[Orchid Party]]
|18.35% {{Increase}} 1.82%
|5 {{Steady}}
|
|-
| style="background:#480D67" |
|[[Forward List]]{{Efn|Joint list of [[Forward Party]] and [[Momentum-Unity]]}}
|10.51% {{Decrease}} 18.09%
|3 {{Decrease}} 6
|
|-
| style="background:#12B6CF" |
|[[Reform Party]]
|8.18% {{Increase}} 5.13%
|2 {{Increase}} 2
|
|-
| style="background:#964B00" |
|[[Alternative for Germany]]
|7.48% {{Increase}} 0.76%
|2 {{Steady}}
|
|-
| style="background:#768135" |
|[[Momentum-Free Republic]]
|5.97% {{Decrease}} 0.84%
|1 {{Decrease}} 1
|
|-
| style="background:#56277E" |
|[[Relationist Party of the Radical Left]]
|5.87% {{Increase}} 3.76%
|1 {{Increase}} 1
|
|-
| style="background:#000099" |
|[[Kuomintang]]
|3.57% {{Decrease}} 1.94%
|0 {{Decrease}} 1
|
|}
=== Uptime ===
{| class="wikitable"
! colspan="2" |[[List of political parties|Party]]
!Vote share
!Seats won
!Seats won (post-leveling)
|-
| style="background:#480D67" |
|[[Forward Party]]
|24.06% {{Decrease}} 6.24%
|14 {{Decrease}} 5
|
|-
| style="background:#1B9431" |
|[[Democratic Progressive Party]]
|23.52% {{Increase}} 2.96%
|14 {{Increase}} 1
|
|-
| style="background:#000099" |
|[[Kuomintang]]
|17.39% {{Decrease}} 0.70%
|10 {{Decrease}} 1
|
|-
| style="background:#C21E56" |
|[[Orchid Party]]
|7.10% {{Increase}} 2.48%
|4 {{Increase}} 4
|
|-
| style="background:#12B6CF" |
|[[Reform Party]]
|6.65% {{Increase}} 1.27%
|4 {{Increase}} 1
|
|-
| style="background:#964B00" |
|[[Alternative for Germany]]
|6.43% {{Increase}} 1.79%
|4 {{Increase}} 4
|
|-
| style="background:#C3D746" |
|[[Momentum-Unity]]
|5.80% {{Decrease}} 1.66%
|3 {{Decrease}} 1
|
|-
| style="background:#768135" |
|[[Momentum-Free Republic]]
|4.90% {{Decrease}} 0.96%
|0 {{Decrease}} 3
|
|-
| style="background:#56277E" |
|[[Relationist Party of the Radical Left]]
|4.15% {{Increase}} 3.06%
|0 {{Steady}}
|
|}
=== Downtime ===
{| class="wikitable"
! colspan="2" |[[List of political parties|Party]]
!Vote share
!Seats won
!Seats won (post-leveling)
|-
| style="background:#480D67" |
|[[Forward Party]]
|
|
|
|-
| style="background:#1B9431" |
|[[Democratic Progressive Party]]
|
|
|
|-
| style="background:#000099" |
|[[Kuomintang]]
|
|
|
|-
| style="background:#C3D746" |
|[[Momentum-Unity]]
|
|
|
|-
| style="background:#768135" |
|[[Momentum-Free Republic]]
|
|
|
|-
| style="background:#C21E56" |
|[[Orchid Party]]
|
|
|
|-
| style="background:#964B00" |
|[[Alternative for Germany]]
|
|
|
|-
| style="background:#12B6CF" |
|[[Reform Party]]
|
|
|
|-
| style="background:#56277E" |
|[[Relationist Party of the Radical Left]]
|
|
|
|}
=== Consumable ===
{| class="wikitable"
! colspan="2" |[[List of political parties|Party]]
!Vote share
!Seats won
!Seats won (post-leveling)
|-
| style="background:#480D67" |
|[[Forward Party]]
|
|
|
|-
| style="background:#1B9431" |
|[[Democratic Progressive Party]]
|
|
|
|-
| style="background:#000099" |
|[[Kuomintang]]
|
|
|
|-
| style="background:#C3D746" |
|[[Momentum-Unity]]
|
|
|
|-
| style="background:#768135" |
|[[Momentum-Free Republic]]
|
|
|
|-
| style="background:#C21E56" |
|[[Orchid Party]]
|
|
|
|-
| style="background:#964B00" |
|[[Alternative for Germany]]
|
|
|
|-
| style="background:#12B6CF" |
|[[Reform Party]]
|
|
|
|-
| style="background:#56277E" |
|[[Relationist Party of the Radical Left]]
|
|
|
|}
== Referendum results by constituency ==
=== Mandatory ===
{| class="wikitable"
!Choice
!Vote share
|-
|For
|
|-
|Against
|
|}
=== Education ===
{| class="wikitable"
!Choice
!Vote share
|-
|For
|
|-
|Against
|
|}
=== Labor ===
{| class="wikitable"
!Choice
!Vote share
|-
|For
|
|-
|Against
|
|}
=== Uptime ===
{| class="wikitable"
!Choice
!Vote share
|-
|For
|
|-
|Against
|
|}
=== Downtime ===
{| class="wikitable"
!Choice
!Vote share
|-
|For
|
|-
|Against
|
|}
=== Consumable ===
{| class="wikitable"
!Choice
!Vote share
|-
|For
|
|-
|Against
|
|}
== Notes ==
{{Notelist}}


== References ==
== References ==
Retrieved from "https://docsdotky.wikioasis.org/wiki/October_2025_general_election"