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October 2025 general election

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Revision as of 04:07, 12 October 2025 by Richard470l (talk | contribs) (Polling by individual party list: This is a minor edit)
October 2025 Parliamentary election
← September 2025 October 12, 2025 November 2025 →

All 251 seats in the Republican National Assembly
 
Candidate Abu Mohammad al-Julani Tsai Ing-wen Peter Dutton
Party Forward Party Democratic Progressive Party Kuomintang
Alliance Democratic Coordination Front
Last election 30.47%, 82 seats 22.06%, 62 seats 11.42%, 28 seats
Current seats 82 61 28

 
Candidate Dominic Fritz Gavin Newsom Heidi Reichinnek
Party Momentum-Unity Momentum-Free Republic Orchid Party
Alliance Democratic Coordination Front Democratic Coordination Front
Last election 9.33%, 23 seats 8.12%, 21 seats 7.11%, 17 seats
Current seats 21 23 17

 
Candidate Albert Speer Nigel Farage Hunter Biden
Party Alternative for Germany Reform Party Relationist Party of the Radical Left
Alliance Democratic Coordination Front Democratic Coordination Front
Last election 4.54%, 9 seats 4.32%, 8 seats 2.63%, 1 seat
Current seats 9 8 2

Incumbent Cabinet before the election

Julani Cabinet
Forward Party-Kuomintang-Momentum-Unity



The October 2025 general elections are scheduled to be held across the Republic on October 12, 2025. All 251 seats in the National Assembly will be up for election. In addition, a Constitutional referendum on the Galvin Amendment, a proposal by President Galvin to expand direct democracy and ballot measures, will be held. If passed, the amendment will become a part of the Constitution.[1]

Constituency allocation

Elections Moldova released the October constituency allocation on October 11, 2025, on the eve of the elections.[2]

Constituency allocation
Mandatory 9% Increase 1% 23 seats
Education 36% Increase 2% 90 seats
Labor 11% Steady 27 seats
Uptime 21% Steady 53 seats
Downtime 8% Steady 20 seats
Consumable 15% Decrease 3% 38 seats

Parliamentary campaign

The Julani Cabinet was sworn on September 16, 2025. The Pro-Constitution Bloc, also called the Constitutionalists, formed government under the Forward Party. The Kuomintang and Momentum-Unity joined the coalition. Reform was the only Pro-Constitution party which did not initially join the coalition. All Anti-Constitution Bloc parties remained in the opposition.[3]

The cabinet began by attempting to stabilize the Republic's institutions and restore trust in democracy by allowing the opposition free reign to campaign. The government attempted to reduce the powers of the Senate in minor ways. The opposition maintained that these moves were only superficial attempts to look democratic, and that FWD was still the authoritarian party it had been for the past months during the first and second Husband cabinets.

The cabinet pivoted towards the center during the early days of the cabinet. Under Labor Minister Andrew Yang, the ministry resisted attempts by the KMT to expand the work program. This enraged the KMT, which demanded the coalition lurch to the right. On September 30, after a series of scandals in the Labor Constituency, Prime Minister Julani announced that he was sacking Andrew Yang. In a deal with Reform and the KMT, inactive reform member Rudy Juliani as the new Minister. This led to mass protests in the constituency, and was the zeitgeist for the coalition's popularity beginning to decline.

Update...

Opinion polling

Opinion polls were taken starting soon after the September elections. The only polling firm in the Republic is Anne Seltzer's agency, which has done polling for every election since May 2025.

On October 11, 2025, Seltzer released the final poll of the campaign on the day before the election. The poll included the approval ratings of various politicians and polling about the constitutional referendum, along with the standard parliamentary polling.[4]

Politician Approve % Disapprove %
William F. Galvin 67% 26%
Abu Mohammad al-Julani 35% 59%
Tsai Ing-wen 46% 44%
Joe Rogan 35% 45%
Peter Dutton 12% 75%

Polling by individual party list

Graphical summary of opinion polling by individual party list in the leadup to the election
Date O RPRL DPP MO-FR MO-U FWD KMT R AfD
10/8 10 3 31 7 3 19 15 3 7
10/5 8 1 28 7 3 21 13 4 7
10/2 10 2 22 9 4 23 12 5 6
9/29 10 4 22 7 7 26 13 3 6
9/26 11 2 21 7 7 28 12 3 5
9/23 8 1 20 8 10 32 12 3 4
9/20 7 2 19 8 11 31 13 4 3
9/17 6 2 18 11 10 33 12 3 4
9/14

(September election)

7.11 2.63 22.06 8.12 9.32 30.47 11.42 4.32 4.54

Polling by Constitutional alignment

Graphical summary of opinion polling by stance towards the new Constitution
Graphical summary of opinion polling by stance towards the new Constitution in the leadup to the election
Date Pro-Constitution Anti-Constitution
10/8 40 58
10/5 41 51
10/2 44 51
9/29 49 49
9/26 50 46
9/23 57 41
9/20 59 39
9/17 58 41
9/14

(September election)

55.53 44.46

Nationwide results

Party Vote share Seats won
Forward Party
Democratic Progressive Party
Kuomintang
Momentum-Unity
Momentum-Free Republic
Orchid Party
Alternative for Germany
Reform Party
Relationist Party of the Radical Left

Referendum campaign

On September 27, 2025, President Galvin submitted a proposal to the National Assembly through an MO-FR MP, who submitted it on his behalf. The proposed constitutional amendment was one of his campaign promises during the Presidential election. The amendment would create a mechanism for ballot measures, which could be proposed to change the law even if the current government objected. The measure required a 2/3rds majority in the National Assembly to pass, as well as a 2/3rds majority in the Senate and the approval of the Constitutional Court and President. The measure quickly gained the support of the opposition, with all parties of the Anti-Constitution Bloc (besides the AfD, which votes no on all measures in parliament by party statute) supporting the proposed amendment, along with MO-U and Reform.[5] The success of the measure depended on FWD under Julani, which was hesitant to support the measure. However, due to its immense popularity and the urging of President Galvin, the party caved and agreed to support the amendment. The Kuomintang was the only party to oppose the referendum (besides the AfD), with party leader Dutton explaining his reasoning at a press conference, saying that "The people elect a government to govern, not follow every single one of their whims. If the average person made all the decisions, we’d be bankrupt in a day after buying several thousand cookies!"

After passing in the National Assembly, the Constitutional Court of the Republic declared the amendment constitutional, and the Senate also approved the amendment. The final step was for President Galvin to formally place the measure on the ballot, which he did on September 30. The election campaign on the measure didn't attract too much attention, as the proposed amendment had immense popularity.

Opinion polling

Anne Seltzer held one poll on the referendum on October 11, the day before the election.

Date For Against
10/11 76% 15%

Nationwide results

October 2025 Constitutional Referendum
Choice Vote share
For
Against

References

  1. This is probably true
  2. Grok Newsroom
  3. My friend told me
  4. Truth Social
  5. A dream I had
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